Embracing Uncertainty in Life & The Shariah with Dr. Usman Umarji | Session 1

Introduction: The Work of IIAPEAN

In the name of Allah, and peace and blessings be upon His Messenger, and upon his family, and upon his companions, and upon his children. I'd like to start by giving a brief introduction to what we're doing at IIAPEAN. Many of you are familiar with the work of the IIAPEAN Institute for Islamic Research.

We do a lot of work focusing on nurturing Iman, nurturing conviction, dispelling doubt, and inspiring contribution. In order to do that, we've been actually increasing the amount of work we do on serving the Muslim population, both in North America and worldwide. The goal is to better describe, predict, and prescribe behaviors that would be optimal for Muslims in the world.

So we do survey analyses and other analyses that describe and predict Muslims' beliefs and behaviors in order to create appropriate research-driven solutions. Today's paper and presentation is one of those endeavors that we have begun. My topic will begin speaking about decision-making and uncertainty.

Life as a Collection of Decisions

When we think about this topic of decision-making and uncertainty, I'm always reminded that our entire life is simply a collection of decisions to make. Every single day, every single hour, almost every single minute, it seems like we have to decide what to do with our time. We have to decide what is more advantageous for us than doing something else.

It could be sometimes the most mundane things in life. You might think about — you wake up in the morning. The very first thing you do is you get up, hopefully pray Fajr, take a shower, and you start your day. And the first really big decision you have to make, for some people, is what are you going to wear? Now, for some people, this is not a big deal. If you're like me or some other people, just what's clean on the shelf, you pull it off and you wear it. Whereas for other people, that's already like, oh my God, what am I going to wear? It really matters. I've got to make sure that the shoes go with the shirt and so on and so forth. But in the grand scheme of things, hopefully picking out your outfit for the day is one of the less important decisions.

There are more important decisions we have to make. Often it could be as complex and consequential as what to do with your wealth. We have to make decisions such as whether to invest in a particular stock or a mutual fund or other financial choices we have to make in life. And those, of course, are going to be more nerve-wracking. There's a lot of uncertainty. We don't know if the stock market is going to go up or down. Is your investment going to succeed or fail? And so with that comes a little bit of anxiety at times.

Or it could be something like — you got a job offer and you got multiple job offers. The decision of: should I take job A or job B? Which one pays more? Which one has a better company culture? Which one do I have to travel for versus stay where I live? And so we're constantly in this business as human beings of juggling what is advantageous for us versus what might be problematic. And we're taking risks, and people have different propensities for that risk-taking.

The Human Craving for Certainty

Human beings, just at the core of who we are, we have a deep desire for being certain about what we're going to do. We wish that every decision that we made, we could have some guarantee that it was the right decision. We crave certainty in every aspect of our life. Certainty gives us a sense of security. It makes you feel that you're in control of things — because when you're uncertain, it's kind of like, well, I'm not sure. I don't feel secure. I don't know if I have things under control. And so this is a kind of built-in human process that we have.

A lot of neuroscience has shown this — that when people are asked to make decisions under uncertainty, different parts of their brain light up, especially those associated with fear.

Everyday Examples of Seeking Certainty

Here are some examples of things we do on a daily basis to remove uncertainty from our lives. Many people — not during COVID, but typically — we get up in the morning and we have to drive to school, drive to work, or drop the kids off at school, whatever it is. We have our destination of where to go. What I find to be very interesting is that for that decision of where we're going to go, it's known. For the most part, we know where the office is. We know where the school is. But despite the fact that the route is known, despite the fact that we know how long it takes, the majority of us, if we have a smartphone, will pull out our smartphone to make sure: I'm pretty sure it'll only take me 10 minutes to get here, but what if there's an accident? What if there's construction? And there are a number of things we're uncertain about that makes us pull up our GPS, despite the route being pretty well-known.

Another example — when Allah blesses somebody with a child and the couple is just ecstatic and overjoyed and thanking Allah, one of the first things that people are looking forward to is: what is the gender going to be? Almost counting down the date for that ultrasound, to figure out — am I having a boy or am I having a girl?

Another example is when we go shopping — in the world of online shopping. When we go to buy something, many people can spend hours and hours. You go from Amazon to Best Buy to Target to this website and that website, and you want to make sure you get the best deal possible. Even if you spent three hours to save a dollar — our desire within us is like, I'm sure I got the best deal possible. And so again, this is a human shared experience, and we all seek certainty.

How Companies Remove Uncertainty to Influence Decisions

Companies and other stakeholders in the world have tried to bake into the process the removal of uncertainty from your decisions in order to get you to make a decision that they would like you to make. In the case of shopping, many companies will offer you a guarantee: look, don't worry — if you buy this today, I promise you if you find a lower price, we'll give you the difference back within 30 days. Or, if you're worried this thing might break, we'll give you a guarantee that you can return it. Everyone who goes to places like Costco knows the return policy is so good that it removes that sense of uncertainty — what if I buy this and I don't like it? What if it doesn't taste good? What if it breaks? So again, that human desire is being fulfilled in these different ways.

Is the Universe Certain or Uncertain?

One might wonder: how has Allah created this universe? Do we live in a universe that is highly predictable and certain? Or is this universe highly unpredictable and uncertain? There are some ideas I want to go over that begin to shape our mindset on this.

Allah says:

He says that We have made the night and the day as two signs for human beings. Then He explains what these signs are — that We have merged the sign of the night and made the sign of the day visible, so that you would seek the bounty of your Lord.